So does history repeat itself? Or does Dirk get some hardware?
Here we stand. The beginning of the end. The showdown. After weeks of intense struggles, superhuman efforts, trials, tribulations, and all out meltdowns, the last two teams deemed worthy of the title contention by the regular season have been separated from the chaff by the grinder that is the NBA playoffs; so the result is a familiar one.
From the West, the Dallas Mavericks emerge, leaving behind them the twisted wreckage caused by Dirk Nowitzky going nuclear all over the conference. The German player, trusty bench full of veterans in tow, has led a blitzkrieg that left the Trailblazers, boy did I get that one wrong; two-time defending champion Lakers, and the presumptive heirs to the conference, the Thunder in tears. The Mavs have exorcised all their playoff demons; so save one.
Enter the Miami Heat. In an offseason that will be remembered a long time from now, slick devil Pat Riley brought Dwayne Wade help in the form of Lebron James and Chris Bosh. And while the regular season was no picnic, they have hit their stride in the playoffs; slaying a scrappy Philadelphia team; then crushing the Celtics, the team witch started the “Big Three” arms race, finally showing the top-seeded, MVP-led Bulls the door.
Each team has been absolutely brilliant the postseason on both ends of the floor. Each team has bled ice water in close games. Each team has players that nearly impossible to stop. But as one character in a certain movie said, there can only be one.
Dallas Mavericks
Offense
· This offense is all about two things really: beautiful ball movement leading to spot up three opportunities, and Dirk. Jason Kidd brings the ball up the court, passes to Dirk, then Kidd returns to the top of the key as Dirk waits to see if he’s double teamed. If so, either pass to the open man, or pass to Kidd, who will sling shot the ball straight to the open man, or take the shot if he is the open man. There is no one in the league who can effectively cover Dirk one-on-one, not when he possesses the most automatic fade-away jumper of this decade while being seven foot. If fouled, he’s a 90% free-throw shooter. So most teams try to double, leaving an open man. And on the Mavs, that open man is almost always a deadly three-point shooter.
Defense
The defense is strongly help based, and fueled by the combination of Jason Kidd, Shawn Marion, and Tyson Chandler, who anchors the squad on this end. As seen against Durant, if Shawn Marion and Kidd are doubling you, you’re toast. Cough it up already. Chandler’s length and athleticism allow him to play goalie quite effectively, and off the bench comes other savvy defenders like Peja Stojakovich, Deshawn Stevenson, and Brendan Haywood. Hard fouls are plentiful.
X-Factors
These playoffs have cemented JJ Barea as one of my favorite role players ever. The poor guy seems to get elbowed in the face more than any player I’ve ever seen. But he doesn’t mind, since he usually draws an offensive foul because of it. And his great handle and speed have allowed him to get to the basket and finish lay-ups even against the massive frontlines of OKC and LA. If he contributes to the reliable three-point game and Dirk’s ridiculous performances, this is a difficult team to out gun.
Miami Heat
Offense
Here’s a riddle: How do you guard the two most devastating slashers in the NBA when paired with a top five power-forward with an automatic jump shot? The answer: You don’t. The Miami Heat has lived this season off of a pick-and-roll game that leaves opponents in ruin. James’ improved mid-range and post games have made him a legitimate threat from anywhere on the court, and Wade can still slither around defenders like you wouldn’t believe. Bosh has his trusty jumper, and is not at all afraid to take an opponent off the dribble or dunk off a back door cut he. And if they get out in transition, may God have mercy on your soul.
Defense
Also a largely help based defense, with the added benefit that James, Wade, Bosh, and a recently returned Udonis Haslem are all exceedingly athletic and versatile. Opponents have struggled against this defense all season long; with most all drives meeting a wall of defenders, and passes out to the perimeter being closed out on quickly enough to prevent quality looks. If Haslem is sitting, it means that Joel Anthony is in, and he is just as bad, if not worse. Shots will be blocked, and penetration will be stopped.
X-Factors
Another of my favorites, “Super” Mario Chalmers, who has spent the entire season doing brilliant things, only to follow them with not-so-brilliant things. He can drive, his three balls are getting more reliable, but he also will make head-scratching decisions and turn the ball over at crucial junctures. It will also be interesting to see if the past couple of games were just a fluke, or if Miller really is recovering his shooting touch.
Dallas’ Path To Victory
Offense
Basically continue to run the offense they have been, with maybe some more driving sprinkled in. One of the benefits of Dirk Being a shooting power-forward is that he can take a frontline defender away from the basket one-hundred percent of the time, and Dallas should look to take advantage with Terry and Barea whenever possible. Making the extra pass will also be critical against such a quick defense. Dallas should look to keep the head of the defender swiveling.
Defense
The best strategy to employ against Miami is to double at the first sign of a pick and roll, cut off any and all penetration, and try your damndest to make them shoot jump shots. Now recently the jumper has been falling more and more, but I can guarantee you don’t want to give Wade or James any clear lanes. Keep your hands active and try to force turnovers, something Miami is susceptible to at times. If James goes into point-forward mode, play him at a medium distance, daring him to pass. If the rest of the defense can keep up with their men, James can become overconfident with his passing, attempting to thread needles that just aren’t there. If you can discourage them enough, Miami may just fall into the trap of trying to go iso, abandoning the offense, and then you have a chance.
Miami’s Path to Victory
Offense
Miami’s best tactic on offense, as mentioned above, is simply remembering to run one. When they employ the pick-and-rolls, back-door cuts, and off-ball screens that have been drawn for them, they are very difficult to stop, but too often at the first sign of trouble, they start going into isolation mode, shooting up contested jumpers, and continuing until Spoelstra calls time-out to get them back on track. With the aging roster of the Mavs, off-ball movement becomes doubly important, as these are not players that you can afford to give even a half step to.
Defense
The quandary is this: how do stop a man so hot he is drawing comparisons to Larry Legend himself? What do you do about a seven-footer with the silky fade-away? The only answer I can think about is doing nothing. Dirk is unstoppable. So slap Haslem or Anthony on him, and tell everyone else to forget about him. Too many teams have thrown double and triple-teams at the Big German, only to see him pass out and then get burned by the Mavs’ crack team of three point specialists. So the main concern shouldn’t be to stop Dirk, it should be to stop perimeter guys. If Dirk scores 50, so be it. Just make sure the rest of the team doesn’t chip in another 40. Hard to do, but if Chalmers, Wade, and James can make the Mavs chase all over the court at the other end, the rest of the team may just tire enough to slow down the older guys on offense.
So this is it. Will Pat Riley’s three-headed monster ascend to the greatness they so arrogantly promised before a game was ever played? Or will Dirk take advantage of what may be his last chance to get the ring he so obviously deserves? One of these teams will get to go home a champion, raising a banner in their rafters, displaying the Larry O’Brien trophy in a downtown parade. The other team? They will simply go home.
Prediction: Heat in six.
