Western Conference Playoff Preview, or Mambas, Durantulas, and Grizzlies, Oh My!

            1)San Antonio Spurs vs. 8)Memphis Grizzlies

            So apparently the Grizzlies wanted this matchup, resting key pieces Tony Douglas and Zach Randolph in a matchup with the Trailblazers that could have helped them jump both Portland and New Orleans for the six seed and a date with the Mavs, which is the best matchup for any underdog in the west. So instead, they play the Spurs. As in multiple championship winning Spurs. Risky strategy.

            Spurs coach Greg Popovich altered his rotations and pace of play for the regular season to get his one seed, presumably to keep veterans Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobli, and Tony Parker fresh for the playoffs. Other than a hiccup with Manu getting injured in the game vs. the Lakers, this worked beautifully. But what a hiccup.

            Manu is the third best shooting guard in the league, losing out only to D-Wade and Kobe. He is listed as doubtful for game one. If he doesn’t make it back for game two, this could get ugly. I have to give the Memphis frontcourt a slight advantage here, no matter how many rings Timmy D has. The Big Fundamental is getting on up there, and Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph have been playing very well.

            Of course, the Grizz is missing dynamic scorer Rudy Gay and his nearly twenty points a game, so they are still going to need great play from Mike Conley and OJ Mayo to make this a fight.

            Bottom line? Pop is one of the best coaches ever to grace the league with his presence. Choosing to meet him in the first round is foolhardy at best, suicidal at worst. This could go to six, maybe, but hey, at least the Grizz finally win a playoff game!

            Prediction: Spurs in five.

            2)Los Angeles Lakers vs. 7)New Orleans Hornets

            Lets get this out of the way: I hate Kobe Bryant. This is due to a combination of me loving Lebron, and a certain overzealous Lakers fan I know. But dear sweet Lord, is he good. Remember the scene at the end of Anchorman where Wes Mantooth pulls Ron out of the bear pit? “I hate you with every fiber of my being, but man, do I respect you.” That’s me and Kobe. Except I doubt I’ll have to pull him out of a bear pit any time soon.

            But my personal feeling aside, this will be a slaughter. The Hornets were a very good basketball team during the season, with Emeka Okafor fueling a stout defense and still-the-best-point-guard Chris Paul dishing assists to anyone with a pulse. A good offense, however, needs more than a point guard, it needs a scorer, and the Hornets resident scorer, David West, injured himself nailing a buzzer beater (to force overtime, no less) several weeks ago against the Jazz.

            Meanwhile, Kobe, Pau, and Ron loom, hell bent on defending a ring. I could gush about Kobe’s indomitable will, Phil’s unmatchable intellect, of the fact that Andrew Bynum is healthy, but if you have watched 10 minutes of ESPN in the last week, you already know all of that. This team has a tendency not to lose in playoff series’, to say the least.

            Chris Paul will need a prayer to win a game. He’ll need nothing less than Divine Intervention to win the series.

            Prediction: Lakers in four.

            3)Dallas Mavericks vs. 6)Portland Trailblazers

            Poor Dirk Nowitzky. His team acquires Tyson Chandler and brings back Caron Butler to add to Jason Terry, Jason Kidd, and himself. Caron Butler performs well. Chandler becomes a force, transforming the defense of the team. Then Dirk goes down. As he comes back, Butler is hit with a season ending injury. And now a team that was a trendy early season pick to reach the Finals is being looked at as ripe for an upset,

            Enter the Blazers. The team that absolutely refuses to die. Left with the reality that Brandon Roy will never be the game-changer he once was, and Greg Oden isn’t walking through the door anytime soon, Portland did what it does best: adapt.

            Andre Miller,  Gerald Wallace, and LaMarcus Aldridge combine with Nicolas Batum, Rudy Fernandez, Marcus Camby, and whatever Roy has left to make a hell of a scary basketball team. This is exactly the matchup they wanted. This is exactly the matchup Dallas didn’t want.

            Of course,  Dallas will not just give it to them. Dirk wants a ring. More than that, he doesn’t want to get upset in the first round, an upsetting trend. He knows something will force Cuban to take drastic measures if this team underperforms again. Still, if there is an upset to be had in first round of this years play offs, this is it.

            So, in summary, Dirk is hungry, but can’t catch a break. Portland has proven they don’t need one. Here’s where I look stupid.

            Prediction: Trailblazers in seven.

            4)Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 5)Denver Nuggets

            So you trade your best player, and the team actually gets better you say? How does that happen?  Simple. You have George Karl. Honestly though, with ‘Melo gone, and the stellar collection of role players no longer held hostage, Karl was free to coach a team to 16-6 since the beginning of March.

            The team is playing wonderful, with Nene and JR Smith as the leading men, as far as there are any. Nene is having an amazingly efficient season, shooting .651 from the field, and JR Smith is shooting .410 from three entering the season.

            And then there is the Thunder, this year’s trade deadline winner after snagging defensive big man specialist Kendrick Perkins. The acquisition turns the Thunder into a downright scary defensive team, with Serge Ibaka now granted more freedom to block and alter shots all over the floor as a more free-roamer type then he has been. Not to mention we have all seen what Durant can do on the defensive end.

            Speaking of the league’s leading scorer, the Nugget’s will need to find some way to curb his 27.7 points a game. Their best hope? Daring Russell Westbrook to beat them. While Westbrook’s athleticism serves him well in getting to the hole, and his shooting averages are up, his decision making has seemed a little suspect recently.

            This definitely should be the most fun series out west, but when the dust settles, the Thunder roll.

            Prediction: Thunder in six.            

Eastern Conference Playoff Preview, or, Look at My (Not So Amazingly) Dumb Picks!

            1)Chicago Bulls vs. 8)Indiana Pacers

           

            You have to love the Pacers. They came out strong at the beginning of the season, looking all underdoggy and stuff. Then faltered. Then fired their coach. Then looked all sexy again. Such a cute little team. Except for Tyler "Psycho-T" Hansbrough. He scares the children.

           

            Seriously, though. You may have heard of a little guy by the name of Derrick Rose. He was known as the guy who probably wasn’t as good as Rajon Rondo at the beginning of the year. Then we saw that he added a legitimate jumper to his arsenal. And that it worked from downtown okay too. You might have thought that he wasn’t a good defender. Turns out he is now. Oh, and he still has the sickest circus lay-up this side of……anyone. Darren Collison does not have the ability to stop him. Few do. He may need therapy after this game.

           

            In addition to that, The Bulls have the greatest defense in the league in just about every Important category. You can thank rookie head coach Tom Thibodeau for that. Also known as the architect of the championship-caliber defense of the Boston Celtics’ defense, Thibs got his first head coach gig this year, and looking back, you kind of wonder why.

Rose was a saloon door before this season. He bought in quickly, and with other excellent defenders such as Luol Deng, Joakim Noah, and import Keith Bogans on the team, the Bulls are tough on D this year. And as any cliché-spouter will tell you, defense wins championships.

I wouldn’t be shocked if Indiana stole one game at home, but that’s all anyone with any sense should give the Pacers, who are the worst team, record-wise, in the playoffs this year.

Prediction: Bulls in four.

            2)Miami Heat vs. 7)Philadelphia 76ers

            A lot has been made of the Heat’s season. They were too inconsistent. People said the egos were too big for one team. People said coach Erik Spoelstra’s job was in jeopardy. That Wade and James couldn’t co-exist. To be fair, at some point in the season, most of these things, if not all, were true. But if you think a team that features two of the top three players in basketball won’t get out of the first round, you are doing this wrong. The Heat are playing very well this season, in case you haven’t heard, and they would love it if everyone would underestimate and write them off. But then, so would the Sixers.

            Believe it or not, there are a lot of things that work in Philly’s favor at work here. Andre Iguodala is one the top Lebron-stoppers in the league, and it’s a short list. Elton Brand is averaging 15 points and 8.3 rebounds this season, and has scored 20 in five of his last 6 games, according to ESPN.com. If the Boshstritch shows the least bit of the “studio-gangsta” softness hes become known for, Brand will make him pay. Jrue Holiday should definitely be able to give the corpse of Mike Bibby fits. The bench of the Sixers’ is deep and consistent. The Heat’s is not. See Miller, Zombie Mike and Grampier, Eric for proof of this. You shouldn’t need it.

            So Philly is young and scrappy, and would love to be known next year as “The Heatle Killers.” But the Heatles have Lebron James and Dwayne Wade. ‘Nuff Said.

            Prediction: Heat in five.

            3)Boston Celtics vs. 6)New York Knicks

            Take a moment to remember some of the classic Celts-Knicks rivalries of years past. Seriously, do it. Because I’m too young to. What I can do is tell you about this year’s version.

            We all know about the Boston Celtics. The original “Big Three.” The team last team to win a playoff series with the Lakers. The possessors of a legendary defense, a super efficient offense, and unlimited swagger. They have never lost a playoff series with their starting 5 int……oh, wait. They moved that Perkins dude, didn’t they?  The anchor of their top-tier defense? In a move that, one way or another, fair or unfair, will define GM Danny Ainge’s career?

            Let’s get one thing straight; I’m not saying that the Knicks will upset the reigning Eastern Conference champs. But with the Celtics slumping going into the playoffs slumping noticeably, with them taking the Perk trade so hard, with the offense’s engine, Rajon Rondo (by many sources Ken’s best friend on the team), playing the worst he has all year, is it totally out of the realm of possibility? Probably.

            So the Knicks are on the rise, due to the acquisition of Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire. At the end of the day, the Celtics can handle that, even if their emotional state is fragile. The Celts are about as veteran as it gets. ‘Melo loves him some iso, and sure, he’s good at it. But Paul Pierce is a pretty good defender. Just ask Lebron James. Amare may also be an offensive prodigy, but Kevin Garnett will bark him into submission. Also, the Truth and KG can play offense. ‘Melo can play defense, when he wants. STAT? Not so much.

            While this is as close to a real upset I think there could be ( if Atlanta beats the Magic, it will be as remembered as the other two members of *NSync), at the end of the day, I just really don’t see it happen. The Knicks may have brought a gun just as good as the Celts have, but Boston is wearing kevlar.

            Prediction: Celtics in six.

            4)Orlando Magic vs. 5)Atlanta Hawks

            Oh boy. The best bad team in the NBA versus the worst good team. Can’t tell which is which? Neither can I. It’s a battle of front office incompetency. What’s the worst decision? Giving Joe Johnson a max contract? Or going out of your way to acquire Gilbert Arenas and a contract that could feed Eddy Curry and Shaq for the rest of their lives?

            Everyone has "hyped" the Jason Collins-Dwight Howard matchup into oblivion, but hey, I’ll beat the dead horse. It is really the best plan that Atlanta has for winning the series. And I just don’t know that Jason Collins is up to the task of stopping the best center in the league for several years running now.

            Orlando is a veteran team that did reach the Finals a couple years ago, you might remember. No? Okay. Can’t blame you. This will be a battle of jumpers, with Jamal Crawford and Joe Johnson on one side, and the Orlando Magic on the other. Defense and rebounding will prevail. Atlanta is 9^th in points allowed per game with 95.8, and Orlando 4^th with 93.7. I’ll give that to Orlando, just because of Superman. Rebounding? Magic are 6^th with 43.2, Hawks are 28^th with 39.3. Dwight again? Yep.

            Prediction: Magic in seven.